Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 81416.309426 85954.069333 90490.537442 95362.754776 100444.180655 105584.224588 111173.245589
2025-01-12 73452.031050 80363.530047 87467.567193 95305.059802 103698.844514 112408.407956 122118.409540
2025-01-19 67649.024426 76147.558505 85076.794395 95136.991720 106134.484296 117769.979843 130989.581554
2025-01-26 64489.115473 74311.874578 84820.106512 96863.167305 110247.586876 124630.317536 141217.741445
2025-02-02 61959.780409 72874.499570 84735.403460 98530.568650 114080.834962 131013.382185 150790.186819
2025-02-09 59276.389591 71038.537996 84004.486523 99287.691458 116736.247964 135961.877739 158671.099028
2025-02-16 56397.907925 68792.823360 82640.828478 99168.182269 118261.185187 139529.142586 164911.113756
2025-02-23 54213.634401 67214.498059 81919.750921 99671.047388 120399.178287 143717.053863 171804.886646
2025-03-02 52003.127970 65487.237071 80919.668789 99751.038350 121964.230007 147185.024751 177829.896136
2025-03-09 50642.047111 64690.101837 80941.592107 100967.811683 124807.623191 152101.539901 185524.306541
2025-03-16 48466.270837 62817.940772 79602.862316 100492.492357 125590.261799 154565.127849 190322.873593
2025-03-23 47493.784917 62358.252019 79911.835752 101949.953108 128642.603570 159684.404949 198253.053540
2025-03-30 46232.451624 61519.802742 79753.913556 102853.095725 131063.536196 164115.470721 205465.090020
2025-04-06 44618.529203 60186.439842 78944.347704 102923.908408 132454.594165 167312.447854 211222.096975
2025-04-13 42997.825350 58784.062139 77995.444511 102773.944911 133537.282690 170114.073899 216496.390503
2025-04-20 42439.972546 58703.782632 78668.383741 104617.129647 137059.602702 175873.517371 225373.710867
2025-04-27 41891.494823 58606.835591 79298.473012 106392.510283 140495.658238 181540.454253 234171.484716
2025-05-04 40934.063249 57942.092475 79178.486558 107198.221835 142709.906096 185710.353656 241154.832589
2025-05-11 39611.585312 56754.769788 78351.666963 107071.164830 143727.420963 188390.412772 246304.268600
2025-05-18 38647.560347 56008.321048 78062.826976 107606.078333 145561.990376 192075.684982 252704.704085
2025-05-25 37539.970034 55034.325846 77446.796367 107691.165179 146804.280351 195012.832414 258178.588918
2025-06-01 36991.503245 54793.448501 77772.548197 108985.305450 149587.177544 199886.381770 266094.721576
2025-06-08 35733.483301 53549.955373 76743.579799 108479.786182 150032.724988 201803.217394 270296.761142